Ryan’s exit bolsters hope for Democratic ‘blue wave’

“Roar.”

That could be the sound of the Democrats’ “blue wave” hitting the polls on Election Day while Republicans struggle in the rip current.

The prospect of turning the House and Senate blue, fueled by opposition to Donald Trump, gained momentum April 11 when House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., announced he would not seek re-election in November.

A WiG reader, Robyn Fletcher of Kenosha, cheered the news and — referring to one of two Democrats campaigning for the 1st Congressional seat — suggested, “Randy Bryce’s next ad should show him on a surfboard, riding a big blue wave.”

Ryan, who said he was retiring to devote more time to his family, was facing an easy primary against a white supremacist he trounced in 2016, but also facing a midterm election season in which he could lose his seat and the GOP could lose its majority in the House.

Although not completely unexpected, Ryan’s move gobsmacked already beleaguered Republicans. “It’s like Eisenhower resigning right before D-Day,” Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman from Virginia who once headed the House GOP’s campaign committee, told the AP.

“Paul Ryan was the franchise,” Davis said. “With Paul, this was a Republican Party they could still give to. He’s a great brand for the party. He’s gone.”

Battle for the 1st District 

On the Democratic side of the race to replace Ryan, labor leader Bryce is running against Janesville schoolteacher Cathy Myers for the nomination.

Both said Ryan was afraid. 

Bryce has raised more than $5 million. Campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said Ryan quit rather than face Bryce and the voters.

Myers said Ryan was “running scared and was afraid of his constituents.” About the GOP primary, she said any of the candidates “will just be Ryan-lite. The issues will be the same.”

Possible candidates on the GOP side include University of Wisconsin Board of Regents member Bryan Steil, state Sen. David Craig, and state Reps. Samantha Kerkman, Tyler August and Amy Loudenbeck. The filing deadline for the Aug. 14 House primary is June 1.

Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos ruled out a run, as did former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus.

Nick Polce, an Army veteran who also co-owns a security-consulting firm, already is in the primary race. And white supremacist Paul Nehlen is campaigning for the party nomination. He challenged Ryan in 2016 and declared early his challenge in 2018, but he’s now competing in what will be an open primary.

Nehlen likely will bring national attention to the racist, anti-Semitic side of the Republican Party that helped deliver Trump to the White House. 

Earlier this month, appearing on the “Radical Agenda” podcast, Nehlen said, “I am a pro-white candidate. I’m white. I personally am white all the way, Northern European. So when I hear people say that the white man needs to die, that the problem in this nation is the white man, I have a huge freaking problem with that, and I’m not going to back down to it.”

He said “white supremacy” is just “observations of reality” and also said, “When the (Southern Poverty Law Center) or the (Anti-Defamation League) says I’m a white supremacist, well if a pro-Jewish person isn’t a Jewish supremacist then a pro-white candidate isn’t a white supremacist. I don’t want to hear it.”

Right Wing Watch, a program of the progressive People for the American Way, pointed out that with Ryan’s exit Nehlen becomes the Republican frontrunner — at least for a while.

The 1st Congressional District encompasses Kenosha and Racine counties and portions of Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth and Waukesha counties.

It was represented by Democrat Les Aspin for more than 20 years before plant closures. Ryan always won by at least 55 percent and Trump won the district in 2016 by 10 percentage points.

Wisconsin-based Democratic pollster Paul Maslin observed: “It’s still a Republican-leaning district. But maybe this year that’s not good enough.”

Or as former Wisconsin Democratic Party chairman Mike Tate observed, “This district looks like Randy Bryce.” 

WiG writer Louis Weisberg and AP writers Scott Bauer, Thomas Beaumont, Lisa Mascaro, Bill Barrow contributed to this report.