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Trump still leads in Iowa poll, Walker's numbers fall

An Iowa poll released on Aug. 10 finds Donald Trump still leading the Republican field in Iowa even after a weekend of controversy.

Trump is at 19 percent to 12 percent for Ben Carson and Scott Walker, 11 percent for Jeb Bush, 10 percent for Carly Fiorina, 9 percent for Ted Cruz, and 6 percent for Mike Huckabee and Marco Rubio.

The other nine candidates are all clustered between 3 percent and having no support at all — John Kasich and Rand Paul are at 3 percent, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 2 percent, Chris Christie at 1 percent and Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki all have less than 1 percent.

Public Policy Polling last polled Iowa in April and at that time Trump had a 40/40 favorability rating with GOP voters.

On this poll his favorability is 46/40, not substantially better than it four months ago. That suggests Trump's favorability could be back on the way down after peaking sometime in the last few weeks, according to PPP's analysis of the polling results. At any rate, Trump does have the advantage with pretty much every segment of the GOP electorate — he's up with evangelicals, men, women, voters in every age group, moderates, voters who are most concerned with having the candidate who is most conservative on the issues and voters who are most concerned about having a candidate who can win the general election.

However, the biggest winner coming out of the debate looks to be Carly Fiorina. Her favorability rating is now 56/15, compared to 30/15 when PPP polled Iowa in April.

She was such a nonfactor the last time that PPP didn't include her in the horserace question, but now she's at 10 percent and in the top five. Fiorina also ties with Walker as the most frequent second choice of GOP voters at 11 percent. 

Besides Fiorina, the only other candidate who seems to have any momentum is Carson. He was at 5 percent in April and has seen his support go up by five points. Carson is also the most popular candidate in the field, with a 69/10 favorability rating. That's up from a 44/15 spread in April.

The biggest loser in the poll is Rand Paul. He now has a negative favorability rating at 31/45. That gives him the worst numbers of anyone in the field, outdistancing even Chris Christie on the unpopularity front. Paul's 3 percent standing represents a drop all the way down from 10 percent in April.

Besides Paul, the candidate worst off in this poll is Christie. He's never been strong in Iowa, according to PPP — he was at 5 percent in April — but now he's polling at 1 percent. 

Scott Walker went from 23 percent to 12 percent, Marco Rubio went from 13 percent to 6 percent and Mike Huckabee went from 10 percent to 6 percent. However, they are still among the most popular candidates in Iowa. Rubio's favorability is 66/15, Huckabee's is 64/20 and Walker's is 63/17.

Walker is tied with Fiorina as the most frequent second choice of voters and Rubio is in double digits on that front as well at 10 percent.

Jeb Bush was at 12 percent in April and at 11 percent over the weekend and Ted Cruz was at 8 percent in April and is at 9 percent now. So both are holding steady in the state. Bush's favorability is 45/32; that's an improvement from the spring.

Other polling results…

• The biggest winner in this poll might be the first GOP presidential primary debate. About 62 percent of voters claim to have watched the debate live on TV, with another 23 percent saying they saw clips on the news.

• On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 52 percent to 25 percent for Bernie Sanders, 7 percent for Martin O'Malley, 3 percent for Jim Webb and 1 percent for Lincoln Chafee. Sanders' support has increased from 14 percent to 25 percent, with Clinton's dropping correspondingly from 62 percent to 52 percent.

• Clinton's favorability is at 75/15 similar to her 78/16 standing in April.

• Sanders' favorability is 61/14, up from 40/16 on the previous poll. 

• Clinton continues to be pretty dominant with "somewhat liberal" voters (57/22), moderates (54/18), women (56/21) and seniors (58/19). The group where it's closer are "very liberal" voters (49/39), men (47/30) and younger voters (46/31).

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